Jubilæum: Kina fejrer partiets 90 års jubilæum

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Historie / Kinesisk propaganda / Politik

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I dag er det 90 år siden, at Kinas Kommunistpartis blev etableret i Shanghai. Morgenen her i Beijing begyndte med et massivt regnskyl og tordenvejr, der indhyllede den kinesiske hovedstad i mørke og over 30 graders fugtig varme. Så kan man selv filosofere videre over sammenhængen mellem fødselsdage og vejret.

Jubilæet fejres over hele Kina, hvor alt omkring partiet og den »røde kultur« er blevet fejret. Men hvor står partiet lige nu? Her er link og udpluk af tre af dagens analyser:

David Shambaugh – Efter Den 17. Centralkomites Fjerde Plenum i efteråret 2009 er partiet blevet stadigt mere både hårdhændet og usikker i sin opførsel. Resultatet er, at de politiske reformer fra 1997-2009 er gået i stå eller kun skrider langsomt fremad, skriver David Shambaugh:

Despite the political stagnation, three sets of reforms have continued: expanding multi-candidate elections to local level party committees; increased transparency in local budgeting and resource allocation; and efforts to improve meritocracy at all levels of the party and government. But efforts to make central policy making more transparent, to prosecute pervasive corruption, to improve “intra-party democracy” and “extra-party supervision,” and to open up the media have all stagnated.

These reforms all grew out of the party’s study of the collapse of the Soviet Union and other one-party regimes. The main lesson the Chinese Communist Party drew from these foreign examples was to be proactive, flexible and adaptive, and to manage political change from above. Stasis and dogmatism were seen as recipes for stagnation and collapse.

What we are witnessing as the party turns 90, however, is the opposite. Instead of being secure and confident, it is seemingly frozen in fear of the future, unsure about its grip over ethnic regions (Tibet, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia), afraid of rising social unrest and ad hoc demonstrations, worried about the macro-economy and foreign relations, and on the cusp of a major leadership transition in 2012.

Pei Minxin – Hvad står partiet egentlig for? Det vil de fleste kinesere og partimedlemmer have svært ved at svare på. Hvis der er en ideologi, mener Pei, så handler den om magt. Og at blive ved magten. Partiet har forsøgt at forny sig og integrere sig mere i samfundet, men med 70 procent af medlemmerne fra staten, militæret, universiteter og forretningslivet er det først og fremmest stadig for eliten, skriver Pei:

So for all its apparent power, the party is in fact facing an existential crisis and an uncertain future. Apart from staying in power, it has no public purpose. The crisis is not only ideological, but also political; it explains much of the cynicism, corruption and insecurity of the party and its elites.

As the party has firmly rejected democratization, its only strategy for survival is to maintain the course it has embarked on since the Tiananmen crackdown in June 1989: drawing political legitimacy from economic growth but relying on repression to crush challenges to its monopoly of power. Although this strategy has worked well since Tiananmen, its effectiveness and sustainability are increasingly in doubt.

On the economic front, growth is about to slow down. Demographic aging, resource constraints, stalled economic reforms and environmental degradation are almost certain to depress China’s growth potential. An optimistic World Bank forecast predicts a growth rate from 2016-2020 of about 7 percent annually — a respectable number, but a 30 percent drop from today’s rate.

Jeffrey Wasserstrom – det har været en både lang og mærkværdig march for Kinas Kommunistpartis. Og rejsen har givet argumenter til både negative og sensationsjagende læserbrevsskribenter som Jon Halliday og Jung Chang og til Kina-kan-ikke-gøre-noget-forkert undskyldende på den anden fløj. Virkeligheden ligger nok lige midt i mellem. Gennem historien er et af de mest markante særkender ved partiet nok, hvordan det har fejlet i at gøre Kina til et retssamfund, skriver Jeffrey Wasserstrom:

The CCP has fallen short across the board when it comes to carrying through on legal protections. The country still lacks an independent judiciary that imposes the law consistently and transparently, and which does not suffer from a yawning gap between legal rhetoric and practice. Crusading lawyers such as Xu Zhiyong, who has sought to help petitioners secure rights that are supposedly guaranteed to them, also continue to be persecuted by the government.

It is always tempting to mark such milestones in Chinese history with a reference to distance traveled and distance still to go, invoking the cliché that a “journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.” But modern China often takes steps backward even as it surges ahead. The party’s biggest accomplishment may simply be its ability to defy so many predictions of its imminent demise. While that may be something for its leaders to celebrate, it has been at best a very mixed blessing for the Chinese people.

:: Foto fra Xinhua

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Hurtige klik fra Kina af Kim Rathcke Jensen. Jeg er journalist og BA i kinesisk. Jeg bor i Beijing, hvor jeg arbejder som Politikens korrespondent i Kina og Asien.

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