Med Bo Xilais afgang er den politiske magtkamp brudt ud i lys lue. Det er den største ideologiske kamp i Kina i to årtier, der handler om den politiske og økonomiske kurs for Kina i de kommende år, og hvem der skal stå i spidsen for landet i det næste årti. Her er links og opsamling.
Bloomberg skriver, at det er første gang i fem år, at et medlem af Politbureauet har været involveret i en lignende skandale. Og hans fald siger noget om den tilslørede politiske proces i Kina:
“China hasn’t resolved the pitfall of leadership transition, the traditional Achilles’ heel of authoritarian regimes — elite politics remain unpredictable and dangerous,” said Nicholas Bequelin, a China researcher for Human Rights Watch in Hong Kong.
Wall Street Journal har glimrende interviews med tre gode eksperter, som blandt andre Cheng Li fra amerikanske Brookings:
This is not a resignation. It’s a firing or purging. The worst case scenario for Bo is jail. The best case scenario is that he’s given a ceremonial position.
Leadership selection is increasingly based on performance, and so it made sense for Bo to show achievements in the organized crime crackdown and the red songs campaign.
But he made many enemies. He didn’t really understand coalition building. He used the Cultural Revolution method – that inevitably led to his failure.
History repeats itself the first time as tragedy, the second time as a farce. The Cultural Revolution was a tragedy, Bo Xilai was a farce.
The big winners (including Zhang Dejiang) are from the same faction as Bo Xilai. It’s like the Republican primary – if one Republican loses the other Republicans gain.
Reuters har talt med David Zweig, der mener at Bo var en politisk kamæleon, der svingede fra at være liberal til pludselig at blive konservativ neo-maoist, som der står:
Bo has had difficulty shaking off the suspicion of some critics, both inside and outside China, that he is more concerned with his own rise than China’s.
“I didn’t trust Bo Xilai because he seemed so liberal in so many of his positions, and then all of a sudden became this leftist nationalist when he moved to Chongqing,” said David Zweig, a China scholar at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
“I think that surprised people and suggests that he was much more of a chameleon than dedicated to a particular set of policies.”
Economist har en udmærket og kort baggrund om Bo Xilai, og hvordan det på et tidspunkt så ud til, at han havde reddet sin karriere:
It had appeared that Mr Bo might have survived the moment of crisis, when he made a very public appearance earlier during the 10-day parliamentary session. He used it to acknowledge “negligent supervision” in the matter of Wang Lijun, and also struck a populist note about China’s growing inequality. At his chaotic press event, from which hundreds of reporters were turned away, he said that China’s Gini coefficient had risen above 0.46. The central government has not reported its Gini figures, a standard measure of inequality, for years. Mr Bo said that “if only a few people are rich then we are capitalists, we’ve failed.”
CNN skriver, hvordan Wen Jiabao i går på pressekonferencen, der afsluttede Folkekongressen i Beijing, langede ud efter Bo Xilai og advarede om, hvordan Kina kan ende i et politisk kaos som under Kulturrevolutionen, hvis ikke der kommer skub under de politiske reformer. Det var et tegn på, hvad der ventede Bo:
“The news came faster than I expected,” said Wenran Jiang, political science professor at the University of Alberta. But Bo’s removal was “not surprising, given Wen Jiabao’s tone,” he said.
Time ser på, hvem det er, der afløser Bo Xilai på posten. Og her er der mere af samme skuffe:
The state press announcement said that Bo will be replaced in Chongqing by Zhang Dejiang, the former party secretary of the prosperous coastal province of Guangdong and a graduate of Kim Il Sung University in North Korea. Cheng Li, an expert on Chinese politics at the Brookings Institution, said that like Bo, Zhang is also a “princeling,” the child of a former party official. More significantly both Bo and Zhang are proteges of former Chinese president Jiang Zemin. Thus replacing Bo with Zhang retains a balance of party factions, Li says. “Based on what happened, we do know a deal has been made,” Li says. “The person who replace Bo is also from the same faction.” Political analysts had previously speculated that Bo would be given an honorary position, possible at a political body such as the NPC. The Xinhua announcement gave no indication of Bo’s next position, but it is safe to say that he is not moving up.
Wall Street Journal citerer Bruce Gilley for, at hvis en mand som Bo bliver fjernet, så er der bred enighed om det i toppen af partiet blandt de 25 mest magtfulde i Politbureauet:
“We can surmise that the exit of Bo was agreed by the major players,” said Bruce Gilley, an expert on China’s politics at Portland State University. “This is not a coup, it’s a negotiated sacrifice, and there could be a quid pro quo.”
He said Mr. Bo’s departure suggested Mr. Wen’s camp was in the ascendancy, but the trade-off might be that Wang Yang—the reformist Guangdong Party chief—was also not promoted to the Standing Committee.
Reuters har talt med Chen Ziming, der er analytiker her i Beijing, og om hvad det betyder for magtskiftet til efterået.
While Bo might be kept on in some role until the Communist Party leadership succession later this year, his hopes for promotion to a top job were finished, said Chen Ziming, an independent scholar in Beijing who follows party politics.
“Now it looks like Wen Jiabao’s comments yesterday represented the leadership’s collective view that Bo needed to go,” said Chen, referring to the Chinese premier’s pointed rebuke of Bo on Wednesday.
“This will affect the leadership politics for the 18th Congress, because this opens up new uncertainties about who is in contention,” said Chen.
Xinhua offentliggør at Wang Lijun, der var ansvarlig for politiet og viceborgmester i Chongqing samt Bo Xilais højre hånd, har været under efterforskning siden han flygtede til det amerikanske konsulat i Chengdu. Men nu er han også officielt blevet afsat som viceborgmester, skriver Xinhua: